I suppose one of the essential characteristics of being bold enough to run for Mayor is that you have to believe in yourself. That confidence is a good thing. But it cannot cloud the realities of the playing field.
And what does the playing field look like?
First, you have an incumbent Mayor with a wealth of political experience. While she certainly has her critics, and while there are files on which she may be vulnerable, aside from the cyberattack—which no mayor could have reasonably anticipated—she has not fundamentally dropped the ball.
What does that mean?
It means that anyone seeking to unseat Mayor Andrea Horwath enters the race against an incumbent who remains viable, should she seek re-election.
It also means that no matter how well a challenger campaigns, they are likely to encounter a very hard wall: vote splitting.
For the sake of argument, let us assume Mayor Horwath secures 35 per cent of the vote. Some may argue that figure is too low. Others may say it is too high. But let us use it as our working assumption.
That leaves 65 per cent of the vote available.
At present, there are six declared candidates. There may be more by nomination day.
One of those candidates, Keanin Loomis, has already run against Mayor Horwath. In 2022, Horwath received 42 per cent of the vote while Loomis secured 41 per cent. He came frustratingly close.
However, there were also seven other candidates in that race. Former Mayor Bob Bratina captured approximately 12 per cent of the vote. Had he not been in the race, that 12 per cent would have been available to Horwath, Loomis, or other contenders.
Today, we have Councillor Rob Cooper, whose status as a sitting councillor makes him a factor. Then there are Scarlett Gillespie, Sasha Austin, Ejaz Butt, Nathalie Xian Yi, and Keanin Loomis. Each may capture a meaningful slice of the electorate.
The reality is simple.
Defeating a sitting mayor is considerably more feasible in a one-on-one contest. It becomes exponentially more difficult when multiple candidates divide the opposition vote. Some might even argue that it becomes nearly impossible when several candidates are capable of attracting substantial support.
So perhaps it is time for a conversation.
Perhaps the Gillespies, Austins, Butts, Yans, and Loomises of the world need to have a frank discussion about the mathematics of this race.
Of course, stepping aside is an extraordinarily difficult pill to swallow. No one enters a mayoral race intending to withdraw. Ambition, conviction, and belief in one's vision are powerful forces.
But there is another bitter pill.
It is called defeat at the hands of vote splitting.
And municipal history is filled with candidates who discovered that political mathematics can be every bit as powerful as political passion.
Cal DiFalco
